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By Maya Wilson
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U.N. climate talks begin today in Antalya — the “electrification COP,” with the U.S. absent
Antalya, Turkey — The U.N. climate talks begin today in Antalya, Turkey, with the world facing an energy crisis shaped by war and a summit focused on a single, ambitious target: electrification.
COP31 runs from Nov. 9 to 20. The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran, now in its ninth month, looms over the talks, with the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and spiking oil and gas prices framing the energy crisis.
The summit’s big target is to lift the global electrification rate from about 23% today to about 35% by 2035 — “35 by ’35.” Ember analyst Kingsmill Bond called it the first global energy shock with cheap solutions at hand, citing solar, batteries and electric vehicles.
The United States will not send a delegation to COP31, the U.S. State Department told NPR by email, as it did not to last year’s COP in Brazil. Some Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse, will attend.
In April, more than 50 countries met at the First International Conference to Transition Away from Fossil Fuels. More than 25 are developing a legally binding phase-out treaty under the Fossil Fuel Treaty Initiative. Producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have consistently opposed fossil-fuel language in final agreements.
Secretary-General António Guterres urged leaders to “get serious” in France 24’s opening coverage, with an early fight over money.
The talks open at a moment when the argument for electrification is both economic and strategic. The war with Iran has disrupted energy supplies and driven up prices, but the technologies that could reduce dependence on fossil fuels — solar, batteries and electric vehicles — are now cheaper than they have ever been.
That is the host’s argument: the exit from fossil fuels is not only necessary, but affordable. The question is whether the summit can turn that argument into commitments, and whether the absence of the United States will limit what it can achieve.
The U.S. absence is not new. Washington did not send a delegation to last year’s COP in Brazil, and it will not send one to Antalya. The attendance of some Democratic lawmakers, including Sen. Whitehouse, does not change the official position.
The fight over fossil-fuel language is also familiar. Producers such as Saudi Arabia and Russia have consistently opposed it in final agreements. The work of more than 50 countries in April, and the development of a legally binding phase-out treaty by more than 25 countries, suggests that the push for a transition is continuing outside the COP process as well as inside it.
For now, the summit’s focus is on electrification. The target — 35% by 2035 — is a measure of how far the world has to go, and how quickly it would need to move. The current rate, about 23%, reflects a global energy system still heavily dependent on fossil fuels.
The war with Iran has made that dependence more costly. The closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the spike in oil and gas prices have shown how vulnerable the system is to disruption. The summit’s argument is that electrification, powered by solar, batteries and electric vehicles, offers a way out.
Whether the talks in Antalya can deliver on that argument remains to be seen. The early fight over money, noted in France 24’s opening coverage, suggests that the negotiations will be difficult. The absence of the United States, the world’s second-largest emitter, adds to the challenge.
But the summit’s framing is clear: the energy shock caused by war has opened a climate summit whose host argument is that the exit — electrification — is now the cheap option. The United States isn’t in the room.
(Maya Wilson — Intelligence Lead, The Library Media)
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