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Global Fossil-Fuel Emissions Are Projected to Fall in 2026 for the First Time Since Covid — Helped by a War Shock
By Maya Wilson
Global carbon dioxide emissions from burning fossil fuels are projected to decline by 0.4% in 2026, marking the first annual fall since the Covid-19 pandemic, with disruption linked to the conflict involving Iran contributing alongside the expansion of clean energy, according to the Global Carbon Project’s annual report, reported by Anadolu Agency on Tuesday.
The forecast points to a rare interruption in the long-term rise in fossil-fuel emissions. But researchers cautioned that the projected decline should not be mistaken for evidence that the world has achieved a lasting reduction in its dependence on coal, oil and natural gas. Part of the change is attributed to a geopolitical shock affecting energy markets, rather than to a sustained transformation of energy systems.
The report forecasts different trends across the three main fossil fuels. Emissions associated with oil are expected to fall by 1.9% in 2026, while those linked to natural gas are projected to edge down by 0.3%. Coal emissions, by contrast, are forecast to increase by 0.6%.
The figures suggest that the overall decline will not be shared evenly across energy sources. The projected reduction in oil-related emissions is substantially larger than the expected movement in gas, while coal continues to rise despite the anticipated fall in total fossil-fuel emissions.
The report also identifies significant differences among major economies. Emissions are projected to decline by 1.5% in the European Union, 1.3% in the United States and 0.9% in China. India is forecast to move in the opposite direction, with emissions expected to rise by 4.4%.
Those national and regional trends underline the uneven nature of the global transition. A decline in the aggregate figure does not mean that emissions are falling everywhere, or that the underlying energy mix is changing at the same pace across economies.
Clean-energy expansion is another important factor in the forecast. Solar power, wind energy and electric vehicles are expected to meet about two-thirds of the increase in global energy demand, according to the report. Their growing contribution is helping limit the need for additional fossil-fuel consumption even as demand for energy continues to expand.
The expected contribution from renewables and electric vehicles points to the increasing role of technologies that can displace fossil fuels in electricity generation and transport. But the remaining share of rising energy demand, together with continued growth in coal emissions, shows that the transition has not yet removed the pressure for additional fossil-fuel use.
The Iran conflict has also disrupted energy markets, contributing to the projected decline. The report’s findings therefore bring together two very different forces: the gradual expansion of lower-carbon technologies and the shorter-term effects of geopolitical instability on energy supply and consumption.
Study lead Pierre Friedlingstein cautioned against treating a reduction partly driven by geopolitical shocks as a sustainable climate solution. Researchers also warned that the projected fall may not mark a lasting reversal in global emissions.
That distinction is central to interpreting the forecast. A temporary disruption can reduce fossil-fuel use in the short term without establishing the structural changes needed to keep emissions falling over successive years. If market conditions shift again, the contribution from that disruption may also change.
The figures arrive as governments and climate negotiators gather in Antalya, Türkiye, for the COP31 climate summit, now in its second day. The projected decline offers a significant data point for discussions about the pace of the energy transition, but it also highlights the difference between a one-year reduction and a sustained downward trajectory.
The Global Carbon Project’s forecast suggests that clean-energy growth is increasingly helping meet new demand, while conflict-related disruption is contributing to a decline in fossil-fuel emissions in 2026. Researchers’ warning is that the two should not be confused: a fall produced partly by a war shock is not a substitute for long-term climate policy and a durable shift away from fossil fuels.
Reporting based on Anadolu Agency dispatches.
— Maya Wilson, World Desk
Maya Wilson leads The Library Media’s World Desk and serves as the house’s intelligence lead.
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