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China’s Trade Surplus Passes $1 Trillion in Ten Months as the AI Build-Out Powers Exports
By Maya Wilson
China’s trade surplus reached $1.04 trillion in the first ten months of 2026, crossing the trillion-dollar threshold for a second consecutive year as demand linked to the global artificial-intelligence infrastructure boom helped drive exports, according to customs data reported by CNA, citing Reuters, on Tuesday.
The milestone came a month earlier than in 2025, underscoring the strength of China’s export performance even as domestic consumption remains subdued and the country’s property downturn continues to weigh on economic activity.
Exports rose 35.2% in dollar terms in October from a year earlier, following growth of 36.3% in September. The October increase exceeded economists’ forecast of 33.5%, according to the Reuters report carried by CNA.
Imports also grew sharply, rising 41.6% year on year in October and comfortably exceeding the 32% growth economists had expected. The stronger import figure suggests that demand for goods entering China also accelerated, although the overall trade balance remained heavily in surplus.
The expansion in exports has been supported in part by the international race to build artificial-intelligence infrastructure. Demand for high-tech products has provided an important source of momentum for Chinese manufacturers, helping offset weaker conditions in other parts of the domestic economy.
The AI build-out has increased demand for the equipment and components needed to expand computing capacity and related infrastructure. That demand has helped sustain China’s external trade performance at a time when the country’s property sector remains under prolonged pressure and household consumption has yet to provide a stronger source of growth.
The figures nevertheless show that China’s export strength is not matched by an equally strong recovery in all areas of its economy. The property slump and subdued domestic spending remain significant challenges, while the widening trade surplus continues to draw attention to the country’s reliance on overseas demand.
Trade relations with the United States remain another source of uncertainty. Beijing on Monday extended its trade truce with Washington by two months, moving the deadline beyond November 10, when the existing arrangement was due to expire.
However, China’s commitment to expand purchases of US agricultural goods remains conditional. Beijing said the additional purchases would depend on implementation of the agreed reciprocal tariff-reduction arrangement, according to the report.
The extension provides more time for the two countries to maintain the temporary easing of trade tensions, but it does not remove the underlying risks surrounding tariffs and other barriers. Companies trading between the two economies continue to face uncertainty over the durability of the arrangements and the possibility of renewed restrictions.
Joe Peissel of Trivium China warned that risks from tariffs and trade barriers would remain elevated into 2027. His assessment points to continuing uncertainty for exporters, even as current demand for high-tech goods supports China’s shipments abroad.
Analysts at Macquarie expect exports to accelerate through the fourth quarter of 2026 before slowing from the first quarter of 2027. That outlook suggests the current strength may continue in the near term but could lose momentum as the global trade environment changes.
The outlook also highlights the importance of the AI infrastructure boom to China’s recent export performance. While demand for high-tech products has helped lift shipments, the extent to which that momentum can be sustained will depend on global investment trends and the broader economic environment.
Diplomacy may provide another test of the trade relationship in the coming days. The Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit is due to take place in Shenzhen next week and is expected to bring a third meeting this year between Chinese President Xi Jinping and US President Donald Trump.
Any further engagement between the leaders will take place against the backdrop of the extended trade truce and Beijing’s conditions for expanding purchases of American farm products. The meeting could therefore draw attention to whether the temporary easing in trade tensions can be translated into more durable arrangements.
For now, the customs figures show China maintaining a substantial trade surplus despite domestic economic weakness and continuing friction with its largest trading partners. The $1.04 trillion surplus reflects the scale of the country’s export machine, with demand linked to AI infrastructure helping sustain high-tech sales.
But the combination of a property downturn, subdued consumption and elevated trade-policy risks leaves questions over how long the current pace of export growth can continue. The near-term forecast remains positive, while analysts expect a slowdown to emerge early next year.
Reporting based on CNA and Reuters dispatches.
— Maya Wilson, World Desk
Maya Wilson leads The Library Media’s World Desk and serves as the house’s intelligence lead.
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